Spartanburg Straw Poll Results Certified

The Spartanburg straw poll results were certified this earlier this evening. McCain pulled out a surprise S.C. victory. The final numbers were:

1. John McCain - 164
   
2. Rudy Giuliani - 162
   
3. Duncan Hunter - 158
   
4. Sam Brownback - 85
   
5. Mitt Romney - 80
6. Mike Huckabee - 21

The Mud Is Beginning To Fly

So the mud is beginning to fly... and it makes me think that when it gets bad, it's going to get pretty bad. First up, the State is reporting that Mitt Romney is getting attacked via anonymous mailings in South Carolina:

Anonymous mailings critical of GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, on the eve of what has become an all-important Spartanburg straw poll, have raised the specter of a long, nasty battle between now and the 2008 S.C. Republican primary.

One of the pieces was sent via U.S. mail Monday to several Spartanburg County Republicans. The letter, a copy of which was obtained by The State, is a six-page attack on Romney’s record on abortion, gun control, taxes and “conservative values.”

It is postmarked Columbia and headlined “Mitt Romney: Say anything to get elected.”

A second piece was sent via electronic mail from the address “upstaterepublican@gmail.com.” It said it was from “Martin W.” and attacked Romney’s faith.

The e-mail is headlined: “Mitt Romney has a family secret he doesn’t want you to know.”

It says: “Those dark suspicions you hide deep inside yourself about Mormonism are trying to tell you something. Trust your instincts! æ.æ.æ. The light of truth will burn through the smoke and mirrors of Mitt Romney’s movie star looks and crafty words!”

The e-mail includes a copy of a recent Associated Press story about how Romney’s ancestors practiced polygamy.

Next, an erroneous comment that Romney made about Giuliani is getting play too. In his interview with David Brody yesterday, Romney said Giuliani was "pro-gay marriage" (which he is not) prompting various news outlets to report that Romney was "smearing" Giuliani. A source "close to the Giuliani campaign" responded to the allegation by saying "It is sad, but unfortunately not surprising, that Mitt Romney's flailing campaign has chosen to misrepresent Rudy's positions. He can't keep his own positions straight let alone Rudy's."

Is it just me, or does it seem like the dam is starting to break on a vicious campaign cycle?

McCain-Romney South Carolina Surrogate Spat

On the eve of the Spartanburg straw poll, McCain and Romney's South Carolina supporters are apparently bickering with one another. The Spartanburg Herald-Journal reported yesterday:

Results of the Spartanburg County Republican Party's presidential straw poll are already being questioned, and the vote doesn't take place until Thursday night.

A state veterans organization says county GOP Chairman Rick Beltram is stacking the deck to guarantee a strong showing for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, while textile magnate Roger Milliken fears the outcome could be "rigged" by "candidates who have a lot of money."

Winthrop University political science professor Scott Huffmon says that with the real vote more than 10 months away, this could be the start of things turning ugly early....

Don Byrum, president of the South Carolina Veterans Coalition - a group founded in September 2005, sent out a news release accusing Beltram of trying to wipe out opposition to Romney.

"Mr. Beltram has taken measures to dominate the outcome of the upcoming reorganization and straw poll by stacking the precincts with Beltram operatives - those who wish to enforce the will of Mr. Beltram and to deny access to the polls to those who disagree," Byrum said in the release....

Beltram said Byrum should "immediately enroll in a civics class" to learn state election procedures before "slamming the best group of volunteers in South Carolina."

Big Weekend for Romney

I think this week is an important one for Mitt Romney for a couple of reasons. First, March 1st there is a straw poll in Spartanburg, South Carolina that will be a revealing indicator on where Romney stands in this key primary state (it will also be very interesting to see how Giuliani fares). After several somewhat rough weeks in the press, a strong showing could help quiet the unrest. Second, the CPAC Conference in DC this weekend will give Romney the opportunity to gauge his support among some key GOP conservatives as he appears alongside the current Republican frontrunners. Romney, in my mind, needs to make a strong showing at both events. After running ads in a number of key primary states last week, he's upped the ante and if he doesn't see some bounce from it, people are going to start asking why.

It's apparent that there is still a lot of suspicion about Romney among social conservatives. This last weekend at a meeting of the Council for National Policy, prominent conservatives, including James Dobson, Jerry Falwell, and Grover Norquist, pushed hard to enlist South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford as a candidate because "There is no outstanding conservative, and they are all looking for that." Romney also has a lot of social conservatives who are actively attacking him (especially in the Northeast).

In spite of these hurdles, however, Romney has an enormous amount going for him. He has been a prodigious fundraiser and some liberals see him as a the candidate to beat (some might argue the other GOP candidates do too). I think these next couple of months will be telling though... starting, of course, with this weekend.

Peeking In On McCain

It's been awhile since we've checked in on ole' John McCain, who was on the campaign trail this weekend, choosing to skip what he termed a "political stunt" in DC (the vote on non-binding resolution against the surge). All in all, he's had a pretty good week. The National Journal reports that "the straight-talk express is shining even brighter these days in light of the media mindset forming around a certain other top WH ’08 GOPer labeled as a conservative flip-flopper." The National Journal as reports that he was well-received in South Carolina and his strong remarks on Roe vs. Wade and Donald Rumsfeld were "well received." A couple of things worth noting:

Endorsements: Sunday, McCain announced that former U.S. Senator Mike DeWine will lead his campaign in Ohio, a relatively notable pick-up. He's also picked up the support U.S. Senator John Thune and former Senator Phil Gramm of Texas. Gramm even penned an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal today explaining why McCain was the right candidate: "I believe the man we need to meet the mortal need today is here. He is experienced, but has not lost his common sense or his ability to be outraged. His conservatism is not the result of a studied philosophy, but of common sense and personal observation. His name is John McCain. He might not be the right president for all times, but he is the right president for these times." Former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating also endorsed Romney, introducing him at a campaign event in South Carolina yesterday as the "only candidate who is a true-blue, Ronald Reagan conservative."

Flip-Flopping: While campaigning in South Carolina yesterday, McCain told the crowd "I do not support Roe vs. Wade. It should be overturned." He also said that he would appoint judges who "strictly interpret the Constitution of the United States and do not legislate from the bench." Interestingly, this is a bit of a flip-flop for McCain, who said in 1999: "I would not support repeal of Roe vs. Wade, which would then force X number of women in America to (undergo) illegal and dangerous operations." He also attacked the performance of Donald Rumsfeld, calling him "one of the worst secretaries of defense" in history. A departure from the much softer words he had for Rumsfeld last November when Rummy stepped down.

News Round Up

A round up of some recent articles:

Economic Speech

Club for Growth Responds to Romney’s Economic Speech (Club For Growth Release): “Governor Romney outlined today an economic platform that is, generally speaking, very pro-growth despite the surprising limit he suggests for tax-free savings,” Toomey said. “As the governor develops the specifics of his economic policies, we hope he will boldly build upon the limited government, free-market policies he discussed today.”

Mitt Changes Tax-Cut Tune (Boston Herald): "After refusing to endorse President Bush’s tax cuts when he was governor, Mitt Romney has now made them a central part of his presidential campaign, stirring accusations that he is changing his position to appeal to GOP primary voters."

CNBC - Kudlow & Company Interview: Here is the full text of Romney's pretty favorable CNBC interview with Larry Kudlow Wednesday, where he discussed his economic, social and foreign policy positions.

2008 GOP Field

'08 Slate Without Standout For GOP (Washington Times): "Many conservatives say they pick "none of the above" when faced with a choice of Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani as the 2008 Republican presidential nominee."

Energy

Romney Visits Iowa State lab, Endorses Energy Independence (Des Moines Regiser): Romney visited Iowa yesterday, touting energy independence and taking the time to stop by a University lab and assess the efforts of researchers at making plastic with vegetable oil rather than petroleum.

Iraq

Romney Concedes Iraq War Poorly Managed (AP): "We were underplanned, underprepared, we were understaffed in terms of our military team," he said. "We have to a certain degree created the difficulty that we are in."

Social Issues

Romney Re-Affirms Abortion Opposition During Stop In South Carolina (AP): Romney spoke to crowds in South Carolina today, taking the opportunity to reaffirm his position on abortion. One Christian Conservative activist, Dick White is quoted as saying: "If he follows through with his conservative philosophies . . . . I don't think the issue is what church he belongs to. It's where he stands on conservative issues."

To Flip Is To Flop-- Or Not (Orlando Sentinel): The Sentinel's Kathleen Parker describes Romney's position shift on abortion and stem cell research: "All of which is to say that Romney did the nerd-wonk thing: He studied; he listened; he changed his mind. Unfortunately, the flip-flop factor has shifted focus from other issues of greater concern both to Romney and most Americans, including the war in Iraq and terrorism. You have to be not dead before you can enjoy the luxury of defining life."

Mormonism

Faith Could Be Hurdle in Romney's White House Bid (NPR): NPR explores how much of a hurdle Romney's religion will be among social conservatives and the public at large.

Endorsements and Support

Romney Announces New Support (mittromney.com): On Wednesday, Romney announced his Florida Steering Committee, including Toni Jennings, the former Leuteniant Governor to Jeb Bush. On Thursday, Romney announced the support of Alabama Representative Robert Aderholt, the 22nd Congressman to endorse his campaign. Today, he announced that economist John Cogan, a former economist in Reagan's administration, will serve as a Co-Chair of his Economic Advisory Council (joining Glenn Hubbard and Greg Mankiw).

Romney to Formally Announce Presidential Bid on February 13th

The Politico is reporting that Mitt Romney will formally announce his presidential bid at the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn, Michigan on February 13th. Romney then plans on traveling to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, over the next two days before returning to Massachusetts.

News from the Campaign Trail

A few campaign tidbits:

• Mitt Romney will be headlining a GOP Banquet in Spartanburg, South Carolina on February 22nd. "It’s a political event for Romney, a chance to build his base, shake hands, recruit team members and smile for the cameras — and there will be lots of those."
  

• John McCain adds to his Florida team, while Romney beefs up his Arizona lineup
  

• As if you haven't already heard, Rudy Giuliani has officially chartered an exploratory committee.
  

• Romney v. Obama the dream election? Columnist Tim Myers seems to think so, "Two good men of strong religious faith - I don't care what - possessing strong backgrounds of achievement, and with a vision for the future of the nation. Then, and finally, Americans would again have a clear choice, and a cogent and collegial campaign for making the decision."
  

• Apparently Mitt Romney "is the first potential 2008 Republican presidential candidate to have a Facebook profile."

Endorsement Round Up

In spite of becoming the number one target of Republicans eyeing the White House this past week, Mitt Romney continues to rack up impressive endorsements. Being in the bullseye for an up-and-coming candidate carries with it its dangers though. Several pundits have recently made parallels with former California governor Pete Wilson's failed run in 1996, so Romney may want to take note. Wilson was the candidate Clinton feared most in that election, and the Republican field took him down as each candidate tried to position himself for the primaries.

How does Romney avoid that? I'm not entirely sure. He certainly needs to stay on message and be quick in responding to attacks (as he was with the Youtube incident this month), but reeling off impressive endorsements can't hurt either. Here's how the endorsement battle is shaping up this week:

• Romney announced yesterday that former Missouri Senator Jim Talent will chair his Domestic Policy Task Force.

• In Florida, while Romney continues to "snap up former staffers of Gov. Jeb Bush's," (see here) John McCain announced the support of three Cuban-American members of Congress from Florida, Representatives Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

• McCain announced Wednesday that a majority of the House Republicans in South Carolina's state legislature are supporing him.

• Today, the AP is reporting that McCain and Romney are touting several endorsements in each other's backyards, McCain in New Hampshire and Romney in Arizona. Not to be outdone, Romney spent the day in New Hampshire yesterday trying to keep pace with McCain in the state.
  

• Mitt Romney announced today that three Congressmen from Kentucky, Representatives Hal Rogers, Ron Lewis and Ed Whitfield, have signed onto his campaign.
  

Endorsement Round Up

While campaigning with Senator Demint in South Carolina yesterday, Mitt Romney picked up the endorsement of former South Carolina Governor Jim Edwards, former U.S. Representative Tommy Hartnett, Republican National Committeewoman Cindy Costa, and a slew of other Charleston leaders.

Today, Romney announced that former Iowa House Speaker Brent Siegrist and former Congressional candidate Brian Kennedy will serve as advisers to his Presidential Exploratory Committee.

Romney also announced that James Bopp, Jr., a noted social conservative, will be advising his Presidential Exploratory Committee as Special Adviser on Life Issues.

Romney Campaigns in South Carolina

Mitt Romney is embarking on a "major campaign push" in South Carolina today. While Romney has a lot of ground to make up on John McCain in the state, S.C. GOP Chairman Katon Dawson says of Romney, "He made a lot of friends the last time he was here. He raised a lot of money for the party ... He’s got a lot of people on the ground here working for him."

Sullivan to Chair South Carolina Efforts

Mitt Romney announced today that South Carolina political operative Terry Sullivan will be overseeing his Exploratory Committee's effort in South Carolina. Sullivan managed Jim Demint's successful run in South Carolina's 2004 Senate race and Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson’s re-election win in 2006.

When asked yesterday to assess Romney's prospects in South Carolina, Sullivan said: "This isn't a race where we're going to win the endorsement battles or have the most endorsements. It's certainly not a race where we start out as a front runner. We're a huge underdog."