One Question for Rudy

I want to start off by saying that I am generally satisfied with the Republican candidates for president. They are people with whom I find a lot of common ground and would vote for long before any of the Democratic contenders.

Still, there are issues that trouble me about each candidate. I've talked before about some of my qualms about McCain, most recently in discussing McCain-Feingold. Today, there is one question that still plagues me about Rudy Giuliani: How?

Giuliani's position on abortion has been well documented and I have explained the fallacy of his constitutional reasoning for supporting taxpayer funding of abortions. More recently Giuliani has argued that he will increase adoptions and decrease abortions. It is one of his now famous "twelve commitments". Giuliani has repeated the statistics from his tenure as mayor evidencing that phenomenon in New York.

Which brings me back to my question: How? What is it that will accomplish these two goals? What policies resulted in the success in New York? Or was it purely coincidence that took place during Giuliani's How will that work on the national stage? I assume that Giuliani will explain as he gets through fleshing out his twelve commitments, but count me skeptical right now.

Mostly I find myself skeptical because the two issues do not necessarily correlate. Increasing adoptions does not necessarily decrease abortions. Conversely decreasing abortions does not necessarily translate into more adoptions. Thus, trying to merge the two issues confuses the listener.

Which brings me to a reason why I support Mitt. We have seen Mitt defend life. He understands the role that a strong executive can play in reducing abortions. It's not just through strict constructionist judges. It's not just through personal opposition. It is through the full exercise of executive powers. Right now Mitt understands and advocates that. Rudy does not.

Romney "Youtubed" Again

After being distracted by Giuliani for awhile, Youtube has once again turned its gaze back to Romney... this time with Ann and Mitt teaming up on abortion in a 2002 interview:

The Primary Balancing Act

Every presidential primary season candidates face the challenge of reaching out to the party base without painting themselves into a corner by alienating the independents and centrist voters that are required to win a general election. It's a balancing act that successful candidates must master. I'm curious as to how people think Romney is doing in this regard. Two issues in particular have jumped out at me over the past couple of days as I think about Romney and this "balancing act" are immigration and the right to life.

Immigration: Of the GOP front-runners, Romney clearly has the most conservative position on illegal immigration. It makes sense considering it's an issue that many of the conservatives Romney is trying to court feel pretty passionate about. I wonder how his tough talk on "amnesty" will go over in a general election. Hardline stances on immigration purportedly helped to sink a few Republican election bids in the House this past fall and many heavy weights that have influence in the Republican party advocate a much more moderate stance (President Bush, RNC Chair Mel Martinez, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.). There are areas of the country where Romney's hardline clearly doesn't go over well. Florida for instance. This past weekend during his visit there, Romney avoided talking about the issue as much as possible, but still got bruised in the Florida press over it. Yesterday in Arizona, however, he made an effort to emphasize his position, even suggesting state and local police agencies make "deals with the federal government to have their officers trained in enforcing elements of federal immigration law." It doesn't seem to help that this is another issue he seems to have shifted positions on. Just last year he seemed to support what he now lambasts as "amnesty," telling the Lowell Sun that he didn't "believe in rounding up 11 million people and forcing them at gunpoint from our country. With these 11 million people, let’s have them registered, know who they are. Those who’ve been arrested or convicted of crimes shouldn’t be here; those that are here paying taxes and not taking government benefits should begin a process toward application for citizenship, as they would from their home country." Ultimately, I think this is a tough issue for Romney, because he needs the support of the part of the base that feels most strongly about this issue, and yet his position is destined to alienate many who might support him (for example, there is no way anyone who advocates such a hardline on immigration will pick up anywhere near the 41% of the Hispanic vote that Bush picked up in 2004).

Right to Life: Romney's come a long way this past year in his efforts to reassure social conservatives about his position on right-to-life issues. He touts his opposition to abortion and certain forms of stem-cell research at nearly every campaign stop and has brought well-known pro-life advocates like James Bopp onto his campaign. Certainly, this is something that most concede he must do if he wants to burnish his credentials as the "real" conservative in the race and remain competitive in the GOP primaries next year. This past weekend, however, he seemed to push back against social conservatives just a little as he spoke out against the government intervention in the Terri Schiavo case a couple of years ago. Even though this position places him safely with most of the American public, it hurts him among the pro-life base he is currently reaching out to. Many pro-life blogs were quick to denounce his position and Schiavo's brother promptly endorsed Sam Brownback. Add to this Romney's balancing act on stem cell research (opposing somatic cell nuclear transfer (i.e. "therapeutic cloning"), but generally supporting the use of frozen embryos from IVF clinics that would otherwise be discarded. These deviations, again, put him in the mainstream of popular opinion, but they could potentially hurt him in his push for the nomination. He's gone out of his way to brand himself as being with social conservatives on all of these issues, to be contrasted with deviants like McCain and Giuliani.

While the balancing act is a challenge for most politicians, I think it is a particularly difficult one for Romney in this election because he doesn't seem well-positioned to garner the more independent-leaning conservatives who appear to be flocking to Giuliani and McCain at this point. He NEEDS the social conservative voters who are disenchanted with Giuliani and McCain's more moderate positions on a host of issues. Part of me feels like Romney almost has to put off worrying about how he will cast himself as a general election candidate and just focus on the primaries. It may cause a few problems for him image-wise in a general election campaign, but I think he'd prefer to have to deal with those sorts of problems than be watching from the sidelines.

Equivocating Bopp?

A day after writing a National Review article strongly advocating Mitt Romney's pro-life credentials, I was surprised to find James Bopp, Jr. seeming to equivocate on Romney a little in an interview with the Politico yesterday:

"I don’t know yet about Romney," Bopp admits. "I’m not really sure where [abortion] will ultimately fit in his agenda. He's still on a journey."

Seems to me that this sort of response plays into the concerns that Romney has been trying to lay to rest over just where he stands.

Hope still for Romney?

After the comments on Romney’s position on abortion, I thought it was fitting that Kathryn Jean Lopez has a nice summation of many of those same comments from others in the political realm. She readily acknowledges the barrage that Romney has been under, but comes to this quote by Larry Sabato:

“Romney can be saved — no religious pun intended,” University of Virginia professor and oft-quoted horserace expert Larry Sabato tells NRO. “A presidential campaign, especially this one, is a long and winding road. He has the money, the basic skills, and the fundamental charisma to overcome his challenges.”

Indeed, sometimes we act as though this is February of 2008. As I’ve stated before, for Romney the long campaign favors him. He is not well enough known for people to get bored of him. And the early fire goes mostly unnoticed by the general electorate. The fundamentals of a presidential campaign are in place: money and organization. Few other candidates can boast that. And despite the negativity coming from the press and other candidates, Romney continues to raise large amounts of money and gain endorsements. This seems to be a better indicator, at the present, of Romney’s chances as a candidate than the flavor-of-the-week attacks that we’ve seen of late.

More Debate Footage

Footage from the 2002 gubernatorial debate between Mitt Romney and Shannon O'Brien made the rounds yesterday.

Kathryn Jean Lopez at the Corner says "This certainly isn't going to be Romney's week among the blogospheric chattering class... Not new, but doesn't help to watch." In response, the Politico reports that Romney's campaign is trying a new tack on abortion this week, attacking McCain's position by accusing him of "ducking" the issue. The National Review's Lopez criticizes the tactic saying "They are legitimate questions to be asking. But I'm not sure Romney's camp is in a convincingly credible position to be asking them at the moment."

On the press that Romney is receiving, even among conservative circles, the National Review's Rich Lowry says a friend recently pointed out that "Romney is the victim of the rules changing. It used to be that it was expected that Republicans would become more conservative when they ran for the nomination, and conservatives would welcome it. But Romney has changed on so much so recently, in the age of YouTube and especially against the back-drop of the recent assault on Kerry's flip-flops, that he's getting hammered."

Thoughts?

Ads in Response to a Pretty Bad Week

It's been a pretty bad week for Mitt Romney and it doesn't seem to be lightening up (here's another Post Op-Ed on Romney's "extreme makeover"). Several Romney revelations this past week seem to have irked some conservatives. Over at The Corner, Yuval Levin mulls over news that Romney might have become pro-choice just to run in Massachusetts. He says "Flip flops on abortion are a fairly common feature of political resumes in the past few decades. But Romney’s flip flops are both more recent and apparently more frequent than most. He’s done some work to explain them (and some of his record in office helps too), and has made real inroads with social conservatives. But it certainly looks like more work remains." And at RedState, one-time Romney cheerleader Erick Erickson withdrew his support for Romney: "I think I'm done with the campaign of Willard Mitt Romney. I'm tired of it. His campaign and the potential for his nomination has jumped the shark. No Republican candidate for President has ever more deserved the title 'Multiple Choice Mitt.'"

Perhaps this is one of the reasons that Romney has decided to make a major ad purchase, something that is unprecedented this far out from the primaries. I think it's a pretty bold move aimed at defusing this recent negative press run. The ad is set to air tomorrow in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida. To me it comes off as a good, positive ad. Question is, will it be enough to help Romney define his candidacy on his own terms?

News Round Up

A round up of some recent articles:

Economic Speech

Club for Growth Responds to Romney’s Economic Speech (Club For Growth Release): “Governor Romney outlined today an economic platform that is, generally speaking, very pro-growth despite the surprising limit he suggests for tax-free savings,” Toomey said. “As the governor develops the specifics of his economic policies, we hope he will boldly build upon the limited government, free-market policies he discussed today.”

Mitt Changes Tax-Cut Tune (Boston Herald): "After refusing to endorse President Bush’s tax cuts when he was governor, Mitt Romney has now made them a central part of his presidential campaign, stirring accusations that he is changing his position to appeal to GOP primary voters."

CNBC - Kudlow & Company Interview: Here is the full text of Romney's pretty favorable CNBC interview with Larry Kudlow Wednesday, where he discussed his economic, social and foreign policy positions.

2008 GOP Field

'08 Slate Without Standout For GOP (Washington Times): "Many conservatives say they pick "none of the above" when faced with a choice of Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani as the 2008 Republican presidential nominee."

Energy

Romney Visits Iowa State lab, Endorses Energy Independence (Des Moines Regiser): Romney visited Iowa yesterday, touting energy independence and taking the time to stop by a University lab and assess the efforts of researchers at making plastic with vegetable oil rather than petroleum.

Iraq

Romney Concedes Iraq War Poorly Managed (AP): "We were underplanned, underprepared, we were understaffed in terms of our military team," he said. "We have to a certain degree created the difficulty that we are in."

Social Issues

Romney Re-Affirms Abortion Opposition During Stop In South Carolina (AP): Romney spoke to crowds in South Carolina today, taking the opportunity to reaffirm his position on abortion. One Christian Conservative activist, Dick White is quoted as saying: "If he follows through with his conservative philosophies . . . . I don't think the issue is what church he belongs to. It's where he stands on conservative issues."

To Flip Is To Flop-- Or Not (Orlando Sentinel): The Sentinel's Kathleen Parker describes Romney's position shift on abortion and stem cell research: "All of which is to say that Romney did the nerd-wonk thing: He studied; he listened; he changed his mind. Unfortunately, the flip-flop factor has shifted focus from other issues of greater concern both to Romney and most Americans, including the war in Iraq and terrorism. You have to be not dead before you can enjoy the luxury of defining life."

Mormonism

Faith Could Be Hurdle in Romney's White House Bid (NPR): NPR explores how much of a hurdle Romney's religion will be among social conservatives and the public at large.

Endorsements and Support

Romney Announces New Support (mittromney.com): On Wednesday, Romney announced his Florida Steering Committee, including Toni Jennings, the former Leuteniant Governor to Jeb Bush. On Thursday, Romney announced the support of Alabama Representative Robert Aderholt, the 22nd Congressman to endorse his campaign. Today, he announced that economist John Cogan, a former economist in Reagan's administration, will serve as a Co-Chair of his Economic Advisory Council (joining Glenn Hubbard and Greg Mankiw).

News Round Up

A few of the headlines that caught my eye today:

• Romney Heeds Call of Florida (St. Petersburg Times) - "No presidential contender from either party has responded more vigorously to the likelihood that Florida will be among the earliest presidential primary contests and could play a decisive role in choosing the presidential nominees. . . . 'By far and away, Romney is the most organized candidate on the ground in Florida, and the two frontrunners, Giuliani and McCain, would be wise to pay attention and address that accordingly. Otherwise, they're going to be surprised in the primary,' said Brett Doster, a top Republican strategist who is officially neutral in the race but widely seen as a Romney ally."

• Mitt Romney Says He Opposes Abortion (Associated Press) - The AP covers familiar ground with an article detailing Romney's policy shift and his efforts to reassure social conservatives of his position on abortion.

• Romney Seeks Hutchison's Support (Dallas Morning News) - "Mitt Romney met privately Monday in Dallas with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, part of an unannounced two-day Texas trip to line up donors and support from key leaders such as the state's senior senator." Hotline points out that Hutchison is viewed by some as a potential vice-presidential runningmate.
  

• Romney, Battered Over Social Issues, Shifts Focus To Economics (Bloomberg) - "Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, barraged by months of questions from religious Republicans about his shifts on abortion and gay rights, is aiming to change the subject to economic issues."

• Romney's Not-So-Romantic Announcement (New York Times) - The Times is predicting that Mitt and Ann Romney are not in for a "particularly romantic Valentine’s Day" given that he plans on announcing the day before.
  

• Romney's About Face On Campaign Funding (The Hill) - "Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who strongly criticized campaign-finance regulations in a private meeting with House conservatives last week, once touted dramatic restructuring measures such as taxing political contributions and placing spending limits on federal campaigns."
  

• Romney Seeks Massachusetts Show Of Force (Hotline) - Hotline looks at what might be trouble on the home front for Romney.
  

• Capitol Hill Endorsements (Washington Post) - "Roughly two dozen GOP House members gathered at the Capitol Hill Club Tuesday to declare their support for Mitt Romney's bid for the 2008 Republican nomination. Rep. Jim McCrery (La.), the leader of the bunch, said the assembled group was just the start of Romney's inroads on Capitol Hill, noting that he has a list of more than 50 Members who he is actively working to recruit to the campaign of the former Massachusetts governor. 'There will be more joining this initial whip team as weeks go by,' McCrery predicted."

Circumstances surrounding Romney's conversion

Kathryn Jean Lopez at NRO has a full article about Romney’s conversion to pro-life. Lopez describes the history at the time of his change of heart and the middle ground he sought out at the time, only to be opposed:

Cynics then and now would say the governor made a stand against cloning purely as an act of pandering: He judged that pro-life primary voters held the key to the White House, and so he took their side. But I never bought that explanation. If it were all about winning a future election, you’d think Romney would have gone all the way — and opposed the use of frozen embryos in fertility clinics in scientific research. Instead, it seemed to me, he actually believed what he was saying.

Lopez goes on to say that Romney’s stance on life issues was the result of meeting an uncompromising biotech industry and pro-choice regime. Significantly, she chides him for relying on the singular incident alone and not exploring the full picture of his conversion.

Now, with Lopez, a public supporter of Romney, much of her positive press should be taken with some skepticism (much like what is said by Romney supporters on this blog). However, she tells a compelling story of how Romney came to confront the issues. Indeed it makes Romney sound more like an “I didn’t leave the pro-choice movement. It left me,” moderate. This is a much more plausible, and probably truer, version of Romney. Essentially, Romney became pro-life because there was no logical end to the pro-choice movement.

I know that there is a lot of complaint about how far out people are declaring their candidacy, but for Romney it is a plus on this issue. He has time for conservatives to come to trust that his conversion is not a political ploy, but a heart-felt embrace of life issues. Whether they will is another question.

Romney's conversion plus

An interesting post from Mark Steyn at NRO’s “The Corner”:

A pro-life candidate who was previously pro-choice could be a great asset and a better sell than someone who’s been pro-life all along. Many people don’t think about the issue terribly much and, if they do, accept the Democrat-Supreme Court-media framing of the issue as one of "personal choice". And, if you come at it from that end, the pro-life-all-along crowd can seem the ones who are doctrinaire and absolutist.

This is an angle that Romney hasn’t played up much. As a “convert” he is, ideally, able to tell those who may be on the fence or not absolutists about what he saw that changed his mind other that his anecdotal story. Surely someone as analytical as Romney had more than a single incident change his mind. Indeed, he should explain how that was just a step in a larger process that played out for him. As of yet he hasn’t done so and that’s why holes are starting to be poked in his story.

By further explanation, he could turn a negative into a huge positive. Right now he looks disingenuous, but if he can further delve into his conversion process, he could not only carry pro-life idealists, but also more moderate voters who aren’t looking for an absolutist and appreciate that a person can think more deeply about an issue.

Weekly Standard Reviews Romney's "Recent" Conversion on Abortion

The Weekly Standard reviews Romney's abortion record in its upcoming issue, stating that "a look at Romney's second campaign, the 2002 race for Massachusetts governor, reveals that his pro-choice stance and support for embryonic stem cell research were clear and ardent less than five years ago."

Romney Trying to Undercut McCain on Abortion?

Rumors are swirling that a Mitt Romney aide who is a "point man on conservative outreach" is telling "pillars of the conservative community" that John McCain is actually pro-choice.

Boston Herald Coverage

The Boston Herald ran several articles on Mitt Romney today:

• The paper reported that the Conservative PAC Rightmarch.com is accusing Romney of "flip-flopping" on his abortion stance while Governor of Massachusetts. By ordering Catholic hospitals in 2005 to make emergency contraceptives available over the advice of his top public health adviser, the group claims Romney "flip-flopped" because months earlier he had tried block legislation legalizing the emergency contraceptive RU-486 (the "morning after" abortion pill).
  

• It accused Romney of playing partisan politics during his last few weeks in office. The paper claims that Romney rejected a host of Democratic spending measure while allowing the funding of several similar Republican sponsored projects "slide through."
  

• The paper claims that Romney pulled strings from Israel in order to organize a Massachusetts State House meeting that considered whether the state should pull pension funds from companies that engage in business with Iran. The article insinuates that the request to convene the meeting was a self-serving attempt by Romney to bolster the five-point plan he had just laid out in a speech at a security conference in Herzliya.