Spartanburg Straw Poll Results Certified

The Spartanburg straw poll results were certified this earlier this evening. McCain pulled out a surprise S.C. victory. The final numbers were:

1. John McCain - 164
   
2. Rudy Giuliani - 162
   
3. Duncan Hunter - 158
   
4. Sam Brownback - 85
   
5. Mitt Romney - 80
6. Mike Huckabee - 21

Conservative Unease

I'm not sure what to make of the continuing conservative unease about Mitt Romney's candidacy. Especially since none of the three leading candidates seems to be inspiring the conservative base. Consider, for instance:

• Bob Novak wrote yesterday of "a void on the right."
  

• The Politico reports on "a mood of gloom" at CPAC, and cites the dissatisfaction of grass-roots organizers like Citizens United President David Bossie (“I’m disenchanted, I’m disenfranchised, I’m just dissed") and the Eagle Forum's Phyllis Schlafly (the three GOP front-runners are "all equally unacceptable").
  

• The New York Daily News is reporting that "Some[CPAC] attendees were handing out "Rudy McRomney" stickers with a red line through the middle - signifying conservative unease with Giuliani, Romney and Sen. John McCain."
  

• The Washington Times is reporting that 2008 Hopeful James Gilmore will break Reagan's 11th commandment and "become the first Republican presidential contender to say publicly that the three top-ranked party candidates are phony conservatives."

Everyone seems to agree that this unrest leaves the door wide-open for a candidate with less baggage, but no one seems to know just who that might be. Newt Gingrich is the only name that keeps coming up, but he's said he won't announce his intentions until September, leaving something of a vacuum until then.

So where does this leave us? Romney's campaign seems to think this dissatisfaction gives him a prime opportunity to win over conservatives on the sincerity of his "conversion." It seems like a logical proposition, the trouble is that Romney doesn't seem to be winning that many people over. The Politico wonders whether Romney is simply a "bad fit" for the Republican party right now, citing the fact that he consistently comes in fourth behind the unannounced Gingrich in national polls, while Giuliani, who critics (myself included) contended couldn't be nominated, is building a sizeable lead among likely GOP primary voters. This in spite of the fact that more and more voters are learning of his liberal social views, something most pundits thought would be Giuliani's death kneel. Early reports are that Giuliani won the Spartanburg, South Carolina straw poll yesterday, indicating that his viability extends beyond the Northeast and West. A lot of conservatives, including George Will and Bob Novak, now say they see Giuliani and a viable primary candidate. Even staunch social conservative Rick Santorum didn't rule out supporting Giuliani (saying that he would NOT endors was McCain).

I think it's too early to draw any strong conclusions from all of this, but it seems as though many voters are signaling their willingness to vote for a candidate who is strong on security and is "electable" over a candidate who is perhaps a better ideological fit.

Romney News Round Up

Here's a smattering of recent news that's relevant to the Mitt Romney campaign:

• Tally In Straw Poll Resumes; McCain Even With Giuliani and Hunter (The State) - Preliminary results from yesterday's Spartanburg straw poll (with 81 of 92 precincts reporting) are: (1) Rudy Giuliani - 158 votes (2) Duncan Hunter - 152 votes (3) McCain - 116 (4) Sam Brownback - 83 votes (5) Mitt Romney - 80 votes (6) Mike Huckabee - 21 votes. The AP reported this morning that McCain had pulled even with Giuliani and Hunter when counting resumed this morning. Low turnout for the straw poll was attributed to bad weather, which could have hurt Romney's turnout. The results make me wonder if it was a mistake for Romney to push the straw poll as hard as he did though. He ran advertising in South Carolina and reportedly had his organizers heavily pushing his candidacy. That sort of emphasis can make otherwise relatively meaningless straw polls like this matter. What's more, it ends up highlighting Giulani's strong showing in the face of only light campaigning in the state on his part.
  

• Les Mitts (Slate) - Slate has another caustic article on Romney. While I personally found Romney's leaked memo strategy to demonize Europe and France a little annoying, I think this article is absolutely terrible and reeks of religious bigotry: "But by far the best part of Romney's strategy is his campaign's primal code for Brand Mormon. As the Globe explains: 'Enmity toward France, where Romney did his Mormon mission during college, is a recurring theme of the document. The European Union, it says at one point, wants to 'drag America down to Europe's standards,' adding: 'That's where Hillary and Dems would take us. Hillary = France.' The plan even envisions 'First, not France' bumper stickers.' According to his campaign, Mormonism is not some new-fangled, outside-the-mainstream religion. It's Romney's lifelong crusade against heathen France."

• McCain in Utah - McCain skipped out on CPAC and held a fundraiser in Utah yesterday at the invitation of Governor Jon Huntsman. The Deseret News reported that McCain raised over $150,000 as of last night and was expected add to that this morning. Why did McCain come to Utah? The Salt Lake Tribune quotes Utah State University professor Peter Galderisi saying "If [McCain] can get support and money in Utah, which obviously has a religious connection to Romney as well as an ideological one, it's like saying 'I'm still a contender. I can play his home turf.'"

• Romney Says Media Are Focused On Him (Boston Globe) - The Globe picked up on comments Romney made in his CBN interview Wednesday which attributed the media scrutiny against him to the media seeing him as the more conservative front-running candidate.

• Regent Students Upset At Romney's Choice As Speaker (Virginia-Pilot) - "Selecting presidential candidate Mitt Romney as its May commencement speaker has riled some of Regent University's students and alumni who say his Mormon faith clashes with the school's bedrock evangelical Christianity. 'What we're against is the fact that Mormonism is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum from Christian values and what we believe,' said Doug Dowdey, a Virginia Beach pastor who said he graduated from Regent's divinity school last year."

• Candidate Ancestry - Romney's not the only candidate that has the press focusing on his ancestry. Various press outlets are reporting that Barack Obama's mother's ancestors purportedly owned slaves. More news, like Romney's polygamous ancestry, that's not relevant to the current presidential campaign. I believe, however, that it bolsters my argument (in the comments) that reports on Romney's polygamous ancestors were not necessarily religious bigotry or a "liberal" hit piece, but rather another example of headline grabbing sensationalistic journalism.
  

McCain-Romney South Carolina Surrogate Spat

On the eve of the Spartanburg straw poll, McCain and Romney's South Carolina supporters are apparently bickering with one another. The Spartanburg Herald-Journal reported yesterday:

Results of the Spartanburg County Republican Party's presidential straw poll are already being questioned, and the vote doesn't take place until Thursday night.

A state veterans organization says county GOP Chairman Rick Beltram is stacking the deck to guarantee a strong showing for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, while textile magnate Roger Milliken fears the outcome could be "rigged" by "candidates who have a lot of money."

Winthrop University political science professor Scott Huffmon says that with the real vote more than 10 months away, this could be the start of things turning ugly early....

Don Byrum, president of the South Carolina Veterans Coalition - a group founded in September 2005, sent out a news release accusing Beltram of trying to wipe out opposition to Romney.

"Mr. Beltram has taken measures to dominate the outcome of the upcoming reorganization and straw poll by stacking the precincts with Beltram operatives - those who wish to enforce the will of Mr. Beltram and to deny access to the polls to those who disagree," Byrum said in the release....

Beltram said Byrum should "immediately enroll in a civics class" to learn state election procedures before "slamming the best group of volunteers in South Carolina."