Money and Wives

So many good things to talk about today.

After NewsMax’s glowing article about Mitt over the weekend, NewsMax has another positive take on Romney’s big number yesterday:

When early polls showed him trailing Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, Mitt Romney urged all listeners to watch his presidential campaign blossom over the long election season.

On Monday, it burst into full glory after just three months.

The results not only cemented Romney's status as a first-tier competitor, but they also threatened to further erode support from McCain's already-flagging campaign, and to dry up funding for other lagging candidates.

I’ve been saying for a long while that the long election cycle favors Romney more than a short cycle would because he needs name recognition and time to persuade conservatives that he truly belongs with them. Both of these tasks are more easily accomplished over a longer period of time. The money primary is one of the first steps in that process, as described by NewsMax. Romney get to trumpet a win, get some more name recognition, and get a fresh look from previously skeptical voters.


In response to my prediction that the hedging on Romney’s numbers would start quickly, the New York Times has an article describing Romney’s support as mainly “Wall Street and the Mormon Church”. MyManMitt has a good response, so I won’t fully address the article here.


Noted Romney enthusiast Kathryn Jean Lopez at NRO has gushing article about Ann Romney's speech to the NFRW. KJL ends with this contrast of Ann Romney and Judi Giuliani:

A wife isn’t going to make or break a campaign. But she is a reflection of the candidate and his character. And there, in the wives’ stories, the contrasts are no small thing. Even with the occasional she-hates-puppies headlines, Judith Giuliani is already being humanized from the New York tabloid image many, especially in New York, probably have of her. But the contrast of glamour shots of a third wife on her husband’s lap (a husband who was someone else’s husband when she started dating him) with a couple that’s been married for 37 years and still clearly in love is no small thing. It’s no small thing, especially, considering conservatives are being asked to compromise on both the character and policy fronts. Sure, Republicans have had personal issues before — but when they ask us to give in on important policy matters as well, the personal can’t help becoming even more political.

Finally, there is a new Rasmussen Poll out and there is good and not so good news. Important to note is that the polling took place from March 26-29, 2007. This means that the news about Romney’s fundraising was still unknown. First, the good news: Romney’s support remains steady from the last Rasmussen poll and Giuliani falls by 9 points to 26%, his first dip below 30% in 7 weeks. The not so good news is that Thompson, Fred Thompson, is ahead of Romney 14% to 8%. I think that the polling will continue to show a narrowing of the numbers so that there is a very close and competitive field. Also important is that this is the second poll where Thompson's numbers have largely come at Giuliani's expense. My question still is: Does Thompson, assuming he declares, have staying power?

Romney's Big Number

Obviously the big news today is Romney’s 1st quarter fundraising totals. Other candidates also reporting fundraising totals today

$23 Million – Romney
$17 Million – Giuliani
$12.5 Million – McCain
$2 Million – Brownback
$500 K – Huckabee


What do the numbers mean? Here’s a few takes:

Captain’s Quarters: “What's encouraging is that both Rudy and Mitt look very competitive against Hillary. For Rudy, that has been a given. For Mitt, it might be a revelation -- and it might be enough to propel his numbers sharply upward.”

KJL at The Corner: “Now....this is just money, but money matters. I think you'll be seeing people give Romney a second look in the coming days of this still-early point in the whole process. People who hadn't really may start thinking — or thinking again: "Hey, maybe this dude could beat Hillary."

Jonathan Martin at The Politico: “So the Big News, said this person, is: "Romney surprises by topping the Republican side and coming close to Hillary despite having low name i.d., low poll numbers and not having done this before." Or, put more concisely: "Rookie Overcomes Veterans." Or better: "Where would we be at 15percent?"

Dean Barnett at Townhall: “Most of the money raised by all the top campaigns flowed in because rich guys vigorously twisted a lot of arms. In order to twist the arms of your friends to give money to a political candidate, you have to really believe in that candidate. That’s the main reason that today is a good day for Romney and a disappointment for McCain. Mitt’s strongest supporters are passionate. McCain’s support is tepid; six years of sticking your thumb in your party’s eye will have that effect.”

Personally, I’m thrilled with some needed good news. I’m sure there will be some hedging when the break down of the numbers comes out on April 15th, but it’s hard to take anything away from Romney when he clearly outdistances the other candidates in the money primary. I think that voters will start taking more notice of Romney, as KJL suggests. Certainly he still has some obstacles in proving his authenticity, but it would be hard to suggest that the Romney campaign is anything but legitimate and in it for the long haul.

Romney to pay commission to student fundraisers

From a recent Salt Lake Tribune article, "He's offering to pay a percentage-based commission to students collecting cash for his White House bid."

"'It's legal but considered by professional fundraisers to be unethical,' says Paul Ryan, who heads the Federal Elections Commission program at the Washington-based Campaign Legal Center."

My question is not rhetorical: what makes a commission to students any less ethical than the set salary that the GOP pays Ken Mehlman the RNC Chairman in what is largely, albeit nowhere near exclusively, a fundraising capacity?

Romney News Round Up

Kyle already threw up the LKL videos, but here are a few other nuggets from the press worth looking over:

Swift Boat Money Man Raising $ For Romney (Washington Post) - Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post is reporting that one of primary financiers of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth 527 (he donated $4.5 million to the group) has signed on to raise money for Mitt Romney. Cillizza points out why he thinks this is meaningful:

First, it likely means a significant financial windfall for Romney's campaign.... Second, the Romney team is likely to paint Perry's decision as a slap in the face to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).... Third is the symbolism of Romney linking himself to Perry. No single person is more closely identified with the Swift Boat Veterans and their controversial campaign to discredit John Kerry than Perry.

Romney's Stratified Fundraising System (Washington Post): The same article above also notes that "Romney has created a stratified bundling system based on the "Rangers" and "Pioneers" model employed by Bush in 2000 and 2004. To be a "Founder," an individual must raise $250,000 for the campaign; a "Statesman" is charged with collecting $100,000, and a "Patriot" $50,000."

Book Says Romney Is Able To Overcome (Deseret News): The Deseret News takes a look at conservative pundit and blogger Hugh Hewitt and his book A Mormon in the White House? 10 Things Every American Should Know about Mitt Romney. Hewitt boils down concerns about an LDS president to three general issues:

First, some worry that an LDS president would be controlled by church leaders in Salt Lake City. "That is the easiest of the objections to dismiss," Hewitt said.... The second objection may be the toughest for Romney, Hewitt said. It comes from some evangelical conservatives who worry that a Mormon president "would greater legitimize Mormon missionary work abroad and lead to more converts".... The third objection is that Mormonism is "just too weird," and anyone who believes in such "fantasy" should not be elected.

Romney's Words Grow Hard On Immigration (Boston Globe): The Globe reports, with audio included, on how Romney's rhetoric on immigration and the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill has changed markedly over the past two years. The audio clips are from 2005 (he made similar comments to the Lowell Sun last March).

In a November 2005 interview with the Globe, Romney described immigration proposals by McCain and others as "quite different" from amnesty, because they required illegal immigrants to register with the government, work for years, pay taxes, not take public benefits, and pay a fine before applying for citizenship.

"That's very different than amnesty, where you literally say, 'OK, everybody here gets to stay,' " Romney said in the interview. "It's saying you could work your way into becoming a legal resident of the country by working here without taking benefits and then applying and then paying a fine."

Mitt Romney Scrambles To Raise Cash For White House Campaign (AP): The AP reports on Romney's fundraising push this month:

The former Massachusetts governor had scheduled 20 fundraising events this month, all in advance of an end-of-the-month deadline that will give the first true look at the fundraising prowess of all the 2008 presidential contenders. Reports detailing how much money was raised by March 31, as well as how it was spent, will become public by April 15. The first total is especially important for Romney, who has been trying to elevate his name recognition nationally after placing a distant third behind former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in several national polls gauging the GOP candidates. "What he's trying to do is establish himself as a leading candidate by being able to compete financially with Giuliani and McCain," said Anthony Corrado, a government professor at Colby College who specializes in presidential campaign finance. "If he were to beat one of those guys, that would be a news story."

These fundraising efforts include stops in places that range from unorthodox, like Boise and Southern Utah, to standard fare like Orange County.

Mitt Romney's Son On Dad's 2008 White House Run (Fox News): Tagg Romney was on the Big Story Thursday night talking about his dad's presidential run.

LDS Faith Makes Him Better, Romney Says (Deseret News): The Deseret News reported on Romney's Larry King Live experience, noting in particular his comments on the role of his LDS faith in his campaign and life:

"I have a better marriage because of my faith. My children are better because of my faith. I'm a better person because of my faith," he said. "I think the American public would like to have a person of faith lead the country."

Campaign Additions (Press Releases): Nothing groundbreaking, but a few campaign additions to note:

• In California this week, Romney announced the co-chairs of his California Finance Committee.
  
• In Iowa, Romney announced the chairs of his campaign in Iowa County and also named former Senate Majority Leader Stewart Iverson as an adviser to his presidential campaign efforts in Iowa.

Romney News Round Up

It's been a pretty big news day for events affected Mitt Romney's campaign. On the eve of the Spartanburg straw poll and CPAC, John McCain made a surprising announcement of his intentions to run for president on the Late Show with David Letterman. The quasi-announcement (he's still expected to "officially" announce in April) was certainly an attempt to steal some of the spotlight from Romney, Giuliani, and others this weekend at CPAC (which he himself will not be attending).... will it be enough to get the buzz back into his campaign (which has lost more than 10% points to Giuliani in some polls of late)? Anyhow, here are some McCain, Giuliani, and Romney news clips that caught my eye:

• McCain Says He'll Seek Presidency, Plans To Make It Official In April (Washington Post): McCain made an unexpected announcement of his intentions to run for president last night on the Late Show with David Letterman.

• McCain Fundraiser Set At Utah Home (SL Trib): McCain is venturing into Romney territory ... "Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., who has endorsed McCain, invited him to Utah to raise funds. About 60 to 70 Utahns are expected at Simmons' home for the Thursday luncheon."
  

• Religious Attacks Disavowed (SL Trib): "Days before presidential candidate John McCain visits Utah, his campaign says the Arizona senator condemns any attack against his opponent, Mitt Romney, over his Mormon faith." I wonder if he'll live up to this.
  

• Laura Ingraham Radio Show: Apparently Bob Novak is "changing his view that Giuliani can't be nominated by the Republican party."
  

• A Convertible Candidate (the Politico): "If the conservative press could pick the Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney might have had the nomination locked up last year. By spring 2006, he had appeared on the covers of The Weekly Standard, National Review and The American Spectator with such laudatory headlines as "Matinee Mitt" and "Romney Rocks". . . . But there are signs that Romney's honeymoon with conservative pundits may be coming to an end. The candidate received an early warning in January when he went to address the National Review Institute's Conservative Summit, which ought to have been friendly territory."

• Yesterday, Romney also issued a couple of press releases announcing his Latin American Policy Advisory Group and his Arizona Leadership Team.
  

• The National Review Online had an interesting discussion on Sam Brownback vis-a-vis Romney. Kathryn Jean Lopez wondered whether Brownback was actually running for McCain's VP. She noted an email from Brownback's campaign that lashed out at Romney: "[Romney's] staff unjustly maligned Senator Brownback's record on life issues, and then Senator McCain's record on life issues, Governor Romney continued this tactic by untruthfully characterizing the record of President Bush on life issues. It is disturbing that Governor Romney has seen fit to respond to legitimate questions about his own record by falsely attempting to reinvent everyone else in the race (and President Bush) in his own image...." Lopez said "The shame of this is I think Romney may be the most liable to lead on the social issues — if his cloning and marriage fights in Massachusetts are any indication. On the chance he might be a true-blue latter-day lifer it strikes me as unwise for Brownback... to tear him down so directly and consistently." National Review Editor Rich Lowry responded that "Seems to me it's imperative for Brownback to try tear down Romney's pro-life credentials. He has to do it if he's going to try to be the sole authentic social conservative in the race. I think the way it's going to go, working our way roughly from the right, is that Brownback is going to try to tear down Romney's pro-life credentials, and Romney is going to try to tear down (he hopes) McCain's, and McCain is going to try to tear down Giuliani's (which shouldn't be hard because they're basically non-existent, at least post-1989). Welcome to the presidential pro-life credentials food chain!"

Big Weekend for Romney

I think this week is an important one for Mitt Romney for a couple of reasons. First, March 1st there is a straw poll in Spartanburg, South Carolina that will be a revealing indicator on where Romney stands in this key primary state (it will also be very interesting to see how Giuliani fares). After several somewhat rough weeks in the press, a strong showing could help quiet the unrest. Second, the CPAC Conference in DC this weekend will give Romney the opportunity to gauge his support among some key GOP conservatives as he appears alongside the current Republican frontrunners. Romney, in my mind, needs to make a strong showing at both events. After running ads in a number of key primary states last week, he's upped the ante and if he doesn't see some bounce from it, people are going to start asking why.

It's apparent that there is still a lot of suspicion about Romney among social conservatives. This last weekend at a meeting of the Council for National Policy, prominent conservatives, including James Dobson, Jerry Falwell, and Grover Norquist, pushed hard to enlist South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford as a candidate because "There is no outstanding conservative, and they are all looking for that." Romney also has a lot of social conservatives who are actively attacking him (especially in the Northeast).

In spite of these hurdles, however, Romney has an enormous amount going for him. He has been a prodigious fundraiser and some liberals see him as a the candidate to beat (some might argue the other GOP candidates do too). I think these next couple of months will be telling though... starting, of course, with this weekend.

Romney News Round Up

Several articles on Mitt Romney worth noting as well as some endorsements and a few other interesting tidbits:

New Articles

• This week's issue of Newsweek reviews the concerns on Romney's policy shifts and faith (). Although it's hashing through some very already hashed through ground, it has some a few new stories and quotes that make it worth the read. Overall I think it's pretty fair:
  "Romney may ultimately win over doubters on the right. 'There is a subtle prejudice in that flip-flop charge,' says Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention. "People who are liberal can't understand why someone might move from a more-liberal position to a more-conservative position. Conservatives don't see it that way. They see it as someone who has seen the light.' Christian media strategist DeMoss notes that evangelism is all about conversion, so, he says, 'we accept an evangelical's conversion if he told us it happened this morning.' Romney's reputation as a family man with a wife of 37 years and five proud sons will also help with conservatives. Among top-tier candidates, Romney is more appealing to the Christian right than John McCain or Rudy Giuliani. Romney is beginning to get some important backers, too: he has the political machine of former Florida governor Jeb Bush behind him, an immensely important asset if, as predicted, Florida moves up its primary. (Bush's parents, George H.W. and Barbara, are said to be fond of Romney.)"

• The New Republic yesterday mused over whether Romney could win the a Republican Primary. In a pretty odd article, it brands Romney "a ghost of Republicanism past: a moderate," and wonders whether Romney's announcement at Henry Ford's museum in Dearborn last week was some sort of strategic move to invite condemnations of Ford's anti-semitic views and get lambasted by the "liberal" press. "Get branded such a villain by our liberal elites, and you also might win a Republican primary. Mitt Romney may wish to bestow on us an America of hybrid cars, and, as he said in his speech, one 'defined not only in terms of our might, but also by our willingness to lead, to serve, and to share.' But, to get there he'll have to first prove he's part of the conservative tribe--whatever it takes."

• On the stump in Iowa on Monday, Romney reiterated his view that we should continue to push diplomatic isolation with Iran. "I do not believe that formal engagement and negotiation at this time with Iran would do anything other than give (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad an enormous win. And it's the last thing we should be considering."

Endorsements

• Romney held a fundraiser in Utah on Tuesday and was warmly received as Utah's "adopted son." "People [in Utah] don't heckle the Massachusetts Mormon about 'knowing the Lord.' They don't consider the presidential candidate a pretender. They don't even mind that his primary goal is to charm the checkbooks off of them." Romney has the overwhelming support of most of Utah's Republican politicians. In conjunction with his fundraiser, Romney also issued a press release announcing the endorsement of a lopsided majority of Utah's legislature (40 Representatives and 16 Senators) as well as that of Lt. Governor Herbert.
  

• Romney also announced his Georgia leadership team on Tuesday, it includes several congressmen and other prominent state officials .

Other Tidbits

• When asked about Mitt Romney and his faith on CNN's Late Edition on Sunday, fellow Latter-day Saint and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said: "I've never met Mitt Romney. But I say, religion should not have anything to do with who's going to be president or not be president."
  

• At the Utah fundraiser on Tuesday, Senator Orrin Hatch said of Romney: "He's the one the Democrats fear the most. He's articulate, he's smart, he's attractive." Hatch also said that said if Romney could win the presidency if he could get past those who are prejudiced against Mormons.
  

• This is a little old, but last week Pat Robertson announced that Romney will be the commencement speaker at Robertson's Regent University's this May.
  

Romney News Media Round Up

To follow up on Kyle's recent post on how the press covered Mitt Romney's announcement this last week, I thought I'd do another media round up. I've been away from the blog for a few days, and there's been some interesting stories:

Romney's Mormonism

Poll Numbers Looking Up - Much has been made about the large numbers of people who say they couldn't vote for a Mormon. The numbers seem to be softening a little though. 72% of those polled by USA Today last week said they could vote for a Mormon, much better than the thirty-something% of people that other polls have shown saying they couldn't. A closer look at the numbers suggest Romney still has his work cut out for him (58% said they could vote for a Mormon without reservation, 14% said they could with reservations, 24% said they could not, and 4% weren't sure). All in all, it's good news for Romney though, given how bad some polls have been in this respect.

Will Mormon Faith Hurt Bid For White House - In light of its new poll numbers, USA Today takes a look at Romney's faith and the hurdles he might face. "The emergence of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, a Mormon waging a strong campaign for the GOP presidential nomination, spotlights a religion often viewed as odd despite its rapid growth and attempts to go mainstream. Hartley and others say they welcome the scrutiny. For Romney, set to announce his candidacy today, it may be less than a blessing."

Romney's Announcement

Romney's Family Values - "Just before Republican Mitt Romney formally embarked on his race for the White House, his high school sweetheart and wife of nearly four decades, Ann, called him to the podium in glowing terms. Their five grown sons, five daughters-in-law and 10 grandchildren gathered nearby. The images and speech provided far-from-subtle campaign messages -- an unspoken claim that Romney is an actual practitioner of family values and the spoken argument of the need to strengthen the country's families. . . . The family image was a reminder of how Romney differs from his top GOP rivals, the once-divorced Sen. John McCain and the one divorce, one annulment Rudy Giuliani. It also echoed of a more famous political family from Massachusetts -- the Kennedys." (Romney Announces Candidacy With Family)

Romney Downplays Massachusetts - I think the Boston Globe is still a little bitter that Romney chose to announce in Michigan: "It's been his foil, his punch line, and his source of political achievement, but yesterday Massachusetts earned just two passing mentions in Mitt Romney's presidential announcement." Friday, however, Romney "came home": "With the Boston skyline as a backdrop, Mitt Romney reclaimed Massachusetts as his home state last night, telling hundreds of supporters at a fund-raiser for his presidential campaign, 'My lifetime has been spent with you.'"

Parsing Romney's Speech - Over at the Fix, Chris Cillizza breaks down Romney's announcement speech. (Analyzing Romney's Announcement Speech)

Romney's Wife Ann

ABC Interview - ABC aired a fascinating interview with Ann Romney, who opens up about her battle with MS, her conversion to Mormonism, and her thoughts on her husband's candidacy (she says she is "totally onboard with it"). The Boston Globe had a run down of the interview yesterday. I think this was a good thing for Mitt, it really humanized him. We haven't heard all that much from Ann up to this point, if Romney's smart, we'll hear more.

Campaigning and Endorsements

Battle Over Massachusetts - Former acting Massachusetts Governor Jane Swift endorsed McCain over Romney last week (her opinion mattered again for all of 10 seconds). While Swift certainly has bones with Romney, the GOP in Massachusetts has certainly not been lining up behind Romney. Three prominent GOP State Senators were the latest Massachusetts Republicans to announce their support for non-Romney candidate, this time it was Giuliani.

Good News From Florida - "Jeb Bush, who hasn't publicly picked a favorite in the Republican presidential race, privately is talking up the candidacy of Mitt Romney and steering some of his closest advisers to the campaign." (Jeb Bush Steers Advisors Toward Romney).

Fundraising Juggernaut - Romney raised more than $1 million at a fundraising event in Boston on Thursday. Whatever his hurdles he may have, fundraising is not one of them. I think Romney will make some serious waves and raise a lot of eyebrows when he announces his first quarter's fundraising totals on March 31st.

Flexing His Fundraising Muscle

Mitt Romney's campaign flexed its fundraising muscle yesterday in a national "Call-A-Thon" that solicited donations from Romney friends and financial supporters. Romney's camp blew past its stated goal of $1 million by 11am and went on to raise, according to the Salt Lake Tribune, more than $7 million before the day was through. To remain competitive, Romney will need to sustain this fundraising prowess (some estimate he will need to pull in $100 million this year alone), but by any measure this fundraising kick-off was a stunning success that seems to resolve any doubts of whether Romney could contend with John McCain and Rudy Giuliani financially.