Jimmy Carter redux

Oh the wonderful 70's, time before time (or at least before some of us, ahem, were born). It was a magical time when gas was in short supply, evironmentalists were telling us that the world was in for another ice age, and we were ending our involvement in a long war. Stagflation was all the rage and America looked weak and vulnerable. Of course we have have many people to thank for those blissful times. Prominent on that list was a southern governor named Jimmy Carter. Jimmy was a nice enough fellow, but incompetent and misguided. Of course, that's become more apparent as time has gone by, and the decision to elect him looks foolish now.

I generally don't like to make comparisons of candidates to former presidents. Most of the time the comparisons are unfair and superficial. However, the more I look at the potential presidency of Mike Huckabee, the more I am persuaded that his presidency would look like Jimmy Carter's.

It's funny how we forget as time passes at how bad the national financial situation was back then, with the gas lines and stagflation at the top of the list. The environmental movement was coming of age, also, making it particularly difficult to fix the energy and monetary problems. The Carter administration, through populist economic policies and sympathy towards environmental restrictions, did nothing to help. The nation, still sour over the Vietnam war, saw gloom and doom in a self-perpetuating negativity cycle, furthering the despair.

This, to me, is where a Huckabee presidency would take us. His populist economic policies would do nothing to help problem areas in the economy. Indeed, it is likely that they would further deepen the problem. Likewise Huckabee's affinity towards environmental restrictions would make our energy problems worse, not better. All this would add to a nation in a sour mood over our involvement in Iraq. Huckabee, like Carter at the time, is a nice guy, but misguided and capable of serious harm to the country.

I also think that we now underestimate the importance of Reagan's economic policies in turning around the national mood and healing the wounds of past national hurts. Time has dimmed the memory of how important it was to get our finances in order and the resulting confidence, in all facets of life, that it gave the nation. Mitt Romney could do for the economy what Reagan, in his time, did. He would breath new life into an overstuffed government, and allow the citizens of this great nation to feel confident once again about themselves and their country. Commitment to conservative economic policies, both for spending and taxes, is one of Mitt's hallmarks.

Imagine what Reagan could have done had he been elected in 1976 instead of Jimmy Carter. We have a similar choice again this time around. Being pro-life is simply not a sufficient condition to be president, especially when coupled with a populist economic ideology. We need a president who can lead us to economic success once again. Mitt Romney is the man that can do that.

News Round Up

A round up of some recent articles:

Economic Speech

Club for Growth Responds to Romney’s Economic Speech (Club For Growth Release): “Governor Romney outlined today an economic platform that is, generally speaking, very pro-growth despite the surprising limit he suggests for tax-free savings,” Toomey said. “As the governor develops the specifics of his economic policies, we hope he will boldly build upon the limited government, free-market policies he discussed today.”

Mitt Changes Tax-Cut Tune (Boston Herald): "After refusing to endorse President Bush’s tax cuts when he was governor, Mitt Romney has now made them a central part of his presidential campaign, stirring accusations that he is changing his position to appeal to GOP primary voters."

CNBC - Kudlow & Company Interview: Here is the full text of Romney's pretty favorable CNBC interview with Larry Kudlow Wednesday, where he discussed his economic, social and foreign policy positions.

2008 GOP Field

'08 Slate Without Standout For GOP (Washington Times): "Many conservatives say they pick "none of the above" when faced with a choice of Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani as the 2008 Republican presidential nominee."

Energy

Romney Visits Iowa State lab, Endorses Energy Independence (Des Moines Regiser): Romney visited Iowa yesterday, touting energy independence and taking the time to stop by a University lab and assess the efforts of researchers at making plastic with vegetable oil rather than petroleum.

Iraq

Romney Concedes Iraq War Poorly Managed (AP): "We were underplanned, underprepared, we were understaffed in terms of our military team," he said. "We have to a certain degree created the difficulty that we are in."

Social Issues

Romney Re-Affirms Abortion Opposition During Stop In South Carolina (AP): Romney spoke to crowds in South Carolina today, taking the opportunity to reaffirm his position on abortion. One Christian Conservative activist, Dick White is quoted as saying: "If he follows through with his conservative philosophies . . . . I don't think the issue is what church he belongs to. It's where he stands on conservative issues."

To Flip Is To Flop-- Or Not (Orlando Sentinel): The Sentinel's Kathleen Parker describes Romney's position shift on abortion and stem cell research: "All of which is to say that Romney did the nerd-wonk thing: He studied; he listened; he changed his mind. Unfortunately, the flip-flop factor has shifted focus from other issues of greater concern both to Romney and most Americans, including the war in Iraq and terrorism. You have to be not dead before you can enjoy the luxury of defining life."

Mormonism

Faith Could Be Hurdle in Romney's White House Bid (NPR): NPR explores how much of a hurdle Romney's religion will be among social conservatives and the public at large.

Endorsements and Support

Romney Announces New Support (mittromney.com): On Wednesday, Romney announced his Florida Steering Committee, including Toni Jennings, the former Leuteniant Governor to Jeb Bush. On Thursday, Romney announced the support of Alabama Representative Robert Aderholt, the 22nd Congressman to endorse his campaign. Today, he announced that economist John Cogan, a former economist in Reagan's administration, will serve as a Co-Chair of his Economic Advisory Council (joining Glenn Hubbard and Greg Mankiw).

First Major Policy Speech

Mitt Romney gave what is being touted as his "first major policy speech" today at the Detriot Economic Club. Romney used his remarks to target fiscal conservatives, putting forth policy proposals that included making Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent, reforming the tax code, vesting the president with a line-item veto, allowing people to save a certain amount tax free each year, "pruning" back Sarbanes-Oxley, national tort reform, and revisiting the CAFE fuel efficiency standards to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Many of these proposals (outside of visiting the CAFE standards) fall in line with President Bush's economic policy. Will Romney seek to differentiate himself from Bush at all on fiscal policy, or, given the economy's current strength in most areas, will he campaign on "staying the course" economically?

News Round Up

A few of the headlines that caught my eye today:

• Romney Heeds Call of Florida (St. Petersburg Times) - "No presidential contender from either party has responded more vigorously to the likelihood that Florida will be among the earliest presidential primary contests and could play a decisive role in choosing the presidential nominees. . . . 'By far and away, Romney is the most organized candidate on the ground in Florida, and the two frontrunners, Giuliani and McCain, would be wise to pay attention and address that accordingly. Otherwise, they're going to be surprised in the primary,' said Brett Doster, a top Republican strategist who is officially neutral in the race but widely seen as a Romney ally."

• Mitt Romney Says He Opposes Abortion (Associated Press) - The AP covers familiar ground with an article detailing Romney's policy shift and his efforts to reassure social conservatives of his position on abortion.

• Romney Seeks Hutchison's Support (Dallas Morning News) - "Mitt Romney met privately Monday in Dallas with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, part of an unannounced two-day Texas trip to line up donors and support from key leaders such as the state's senior senator." Hotline points out that Hutchison is viewed by some as a potential vice-presidential runningmate.
  

• Romney, Battered Over Social Issues, Shifts Focus To Economics (Bloomberg) - "Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, barraged by months of questions from religious Republicans about his shifts on abortion and gay rights, is aiming to change the subject to economic issues."

• Romney's Not-So-Romantic Announcement (New York Times) - The Times is predicting that Mitt and Ann Romney are not in for a "particularly romantic Valentine’s Day" given that he plans on announcing the day before.
  

• Romney's About Face On Campaign Funding (The Hill) - "Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who strongly criticized campaign-finance regulations in a private meeting with House conservatives last week, once touted dramatic restructuring measures such as taxing political contributions and placing spending limits on federal campaigns."
  

• Romney Seeks Massachusetts Show Of Force (Hotline) - Hotline looks at what might be trouble on the home front for Romney.
  

• Capitol Hill Endorsements (Washington Post) - "Roughly two dozen GOP House members gathered at the Capitol Hill Club Tuesday to declare their support for Mitt Romney's bid for the 2008 Republican nomination. Rep. Jim McCrery (La.), the leader of the bunch, said the assembled group was just the start of Romney's inroads on Capitol Hill, noting that he has a list of more than 50 Members who he is actively working to recruit to the campaign of the former Massachusetts governor. 'There will be more joining this initial whip team as weeks go by,' McCrery predicted."

Romney's economic message

An interesting article by James Pethokoukis at U.S. News and World Report about Romney’s economic message:

Romney, whose gracefully aging looks are sometimes compared with Ronald Reagan's, sounded somewhat Gipperesque in that he talked about how tax cuts boost economic growth…Romney also talked about his healthcare reform efforts in the Bay State. But when he talked about healthcare, it was more in the context of a top-down, budget-concern issue than a bottom-up, kitchen-table-concern issue. I'm not sure how well millionaire Romney, who cofounded a private equity investment firm and is the son of former auto executive and Michigan Gov. George Romney, will connect with average voters who have economic worries.

This is certainly a concern for the Romney campaign, albeit a lesser one compared to other concerns at the moment. Romney has crafted a well reasoned message centered around the beneficial effects of tax cuts and fiscal restraint. However, the question is whether this will resonate with the average voter. Does the average voter cast a ballot on detached reasoning or is that voter more impulsive and emotional when it comes time to cast a vote? Romney has banked on Americans’ ability to view and weigh economic issues. He has chosen to avoid the populist message of Mike Huckabee (as described in the article) or Democrats like John Edwards. It will be seen whether this is a winning strategy, but it highlights one of the major differences between Romney and other contenders. Romney is an intellectual elite, as seen by his impressive resume. However, as such, his message can be dismissed to the extent that people don’t feel that he can empathize.

Personally, I feel that much of those concerns are washed away when people see or hear him in person. His message may be academic in nature, but his personal style and warmth are engaging in such a way that it empathy is assumed rather than not.