Romney's Results Trend

I’ve been trying to peg down a thought of late and I think that this is it: Romney has been extremely effective, if not victorious, in every “hard-primary” so far. By “hard-primary” I mean the firm, measurable contests between the candidates. Hear me out. See if you see a trend here:

SLRC
CPAC
1Q fundraising

What I see is that when it comes down to people making a firm choice, Romney has a knack for coming out ahead. I realize that grouping these three is particularly advantageous for my theory, but I think there is some substance there. Romney’s whole life has been about results when it mattered. Having lived his whole life in the results oriented world of business, Romney has been held accountable for producing measurable results at a certain deadline. At those times and places where Romney has been able to focus his attention, Romney has produced surprising results. SLRC. CPAC. 1Q fundraising. (I would distinguish the regular media polls from SLRC and CPAC because of the expectation going into the event: that there would be a vote for between the candidates that meant something. Thus the attendees were able to prepare themselves and vote in an informed way. Polls are less likely to select people who have informed themselves and there is little expectation that the poll has true significance from the polled person’s perspective.)

Some might argue (and several people did after CPAC) that this is not a political asset. However, it seems hard to make the case that Romney’s results-oriented nature is NOT something that we should encourage or look for in a presidential candidate. Indeed results should be THE dominant attribute we look for in a candidate. Otherwise we get someone who “talks the talk” but does not “walk the walk”. Indeed the cliché is most forcefully applicable to Romney that he has “put his money where his mouth is”. The office of president is not primarily a job of motivational speaking or popularity in the polls (although those are also nice and have their place). It is a position of doing and acting. This is where Romney excels and has shown his strong ability to produce results.

Now, there are certainly those who would disagree with me and cite polls and such, but I still think that the theory (still fledgling I admit) holds. Romney produces results when it matters.

Of course we’ll see just how well it holds over the next few months.

Hotline TV on Romney's Win at CPAC

Romney News Round Up

Here are a few interesting articles related to Mitt Romney's campaign that I've run across over the past few days:

Mitt Romney

• A Mormon President? I Don't Think So (Boston Globe): The Globe asks the question "Can a Mormon be elected president in 2008?" and answers it "No." Ostensibly because "most Americans would view [Mormon doctrines and practices] as strange."
  

• Who's The Real Mitt Romney (CBN): The Christian Broadcasting Network looks into Romney's candidacy with an extended piece that can be seen via this link.
  

• Romney Resurrects A Passe Strategy (Boston Globe): The Globe looks into Romney's "leaked" strategy targeting France. "Romney's campaign still sees political gain in whipping up anger toward France. It's similar to Romney's decision last year to refuse State Police protection for Iran's moderate former president, who was speaking at Harvard, as a protest against Iran's current hard-line president. The common thread is that Romney seems to believe that presidential voters will respond only to the gesture, not the facts behind it."

• Romneys Highlight Their "Family Values (Hearst Newspapers): "Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Friday showcased his "family values" before an influential audience of conservative Republicans by pointedly introducing his wife of 37 years just hours after thrice-married Rudolph Giuliani made a pitch for support from the same audience."

• To Romney Strategist, Questions On Faith Fair Game (Boston Globe): "It's appropriate for the public to ask questions about Mitt Romney's Mormon faith as he pursues his presidential campaign, a top Romney campaign strategist said yesterday."

• What Romney Could Do For Mormons (Providence Journal): Regent University President Charles Dunn writes "Can Romney do for Mormons what Kennedy did for Catholics? To do so, Romney must negate America's anti-Mormon prejudice, especially among evangelical Christians. Some parallels suggest that he could."

• Romney Picks Up Jason Roe (Politico): "The Politico has learned that [Capitol Hill veteran Jason] Roe will head north to become Romney's deputy campaign manager, assisting Beth Myers, the manager, in day-to-day operations there.... Roe has been Rep. Tom Feeney's Chief of Staff since 2003, but has considerable campaign experience.
  

• Mitt Romney Starts So. Florida Ads In Spanish (CBS4): Romney's running Spanish ads in Florida targeting Cuban-American voters. The full text of his ad is on his website.
  

Republican Competitors

• Giuliani Doesn't Worry Romney Campaign (Standard Examiner): "Republican Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign says it is unfazed by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s recent surge in the polls and insists there is plenty of time to catch up with such better–known rivals."

• CPAC Embraces Steele, Gingrich (Washington Times): The Washington Times writes that Steele and Gingrich were CPAC's biggest stars (while barely mentioning Romney).
  

• As Others Look Vulnerable, Brownback Gets A Look (Kansas City Star): Is Brownback "the most interesting and foolishly overlooked candidate in the crowded presidential field"?

• Master of Disaster (Newsweek): Newsweek has an in depth piece this week on Giuliani and his candidacy.

Miscellaneous

• An Open Letter To CPAC (American Mind): A who's who of conservative bloggers call for a Coulter boycott in the wake of her recent controversial remarks.

Romney's win suspect?

Some commentors have argued that Romney’s organization at CPAC undercuts his strong showing. Matt Lewis at Townhall.com finds this reasoning faulty:

Some people will tell you that Mitt Romney didn't deserve to win (because he bussed in College Republicans to vote for him). That's like saying George W. Bush didn't deserve to win because he raised more money than his opponent. Romney's ability to organize, inspire, and transport college students to the conference is precisely why he did deserve to win! A campaign that has the organizational ability to bus in college students has the organizational ability to do a lot of other things, too. The rules allow for it, so what's wrong with Romney doing what he has to do (within the rules) to win?

Romney Wins CPAC Straw Poll

After a well-received speech at CPAC on Friday, Mitt Romney won the CPAC straw poll. It's important to note that these straw polls are not scientific and should clearly be taken with a grain of salt (especially considering the emphasis Romney put on getting out the vote), but, that said, I think it's a pretty remarkable achievement for Romney, who has had a string of pretty bad weeks on the campaign trail. What a difference a weekend makes. The final results from the CPAC straw poll (out of a total of 1,705 voters) were:

1. Mitt Romney - 21%
2. Rudy Giuliani - 17%
3. Sam Brownback - 15%
4. New Gingrich - 14%
   
5. John McCain - 12%
   

The press Romney has received in conservative circles since his speech has to be pretty gratifying for his camp and definitely gives him some momentum heading into March (I'm sure he's enjoying some of his headlines in the MSM as well).

In spite of losing to Romney, I think Giuliani's showing is still surprisingly strong considering the audience he was addressing. Brownback and Gingrich both fared as well as one would have expected, as did McCain (which is precisely why he didn't make time to attend). What I found surprising is Duncan Hunter's disappearance. This is an audience one would have expected him to pull a lot of support from. I have a feeling Romney might have stolen some of his thunder.

Romney's Speech

This weekend has been a boon for Mitt so far. Continuing the good news is this comment from Paul at Powerline:

Readers may recall that I was disappointed by Mitt Romney's speech at National Review's conservative summit. But Mitt didn't disappoint today at CPAC. Instead, building on the theme of a unified conservative movement articulated by Ronald Reagan at the same forum 30 years ago, Romney presented a fiery defense of all three major strands of conservatism -- economic, social, and security.

In the absence of another first-tier Republican candidate with a longer track-record of up-front social conservatism, Romney is the social conservative in this race as far as I'm concerned. Indeed, one would be hard-pressed to listen to his speech of today and doubt that Romney is the most solidly conservative of the three front-runners, period.

And for those who are wondering why it is that conservatives are so excited, here are excerpts of his speech.

Update: More video here.

MSM on Romney at CPAC

Here's a sampling of MSM coverage of Romney's speech yesterday:

• Romancing the Conservatives (Washington Times): "Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney yesterday delivered a faultlessly tailored appeal to more than 1,000 grass-roots conservative activists hungry for a renewed commitment to limited government."
  

• Romney and Giuliani Make Pitch to Conservatives (NY Times): "Mr. Giuliani arrived to a rousing reception, as people stood up and held cameras and cell-phones to captures a photograph of the moment. But the room grew increasingly silent and restless as Mr. Giuliani’s speech stretched to 40 minutes. By contrast, Mr. Romney arrived to a much more subdued reception but left to a rousing roar of applause."
  

• Romney, Giuliani Court Conservative Base (AP): "Seizing on issues conservatives detest, Romney assailed campaign finance reform and immigration proposals that include a guest-worker program. In a jab at his rival, he referred to the former as McCain-Feingold, for the Arizona senator and Russell Feingold, D-Wis., and the latter as McCain-Kennedy, including the liberal icon Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass. At the same time, he swiped at Giuliani's moderate social stances without naming him. As governor, Romney said, 'I stood at the center of the battlefield on every major social issue. I fought to preserve our traditional values and protect the sanctity of human life.'"
  

• But Did Ginger Rogers Wear Flip-Flops (Washington Post): "The governor began his discussion, sensibly, with economic policy, where his conservative credentials are not questioned. But he didn't quite have his message ready for a bumper sticker. "If I am elected president, I am going to cap non-defense discretionary spending at inflation minus 1 percent!" he vowed. It was time for the social issues, and Romney wasn't holding back. "I stood at the center of the battlefield on every major social issue," said the man who once vowed to best Ted Kennedy in support of gay rights. "I fought to preserve our traditional values and to protect the sanctity of human life. . . . This isn't the time for us to shrink from conservative principles," Romney said before he departed. Indeed, for Romney, it is the time to adopt them.

Romney Delivers

Apparently the Romney speech (full text) went about as well as could be hoped. Here’s some comments from people that were there:

At RedState.com, Erick Erickson lauds Romney: “The people who want a conservative have found their man, it seems. Mitt Romney was pitch perfect and willing to talk social issues -- something totally missing from Giuliani's speech. And people noticed…Mitt was followed by Ann Coulter who put the red meat conservative seal of approval on him. It was an excellent speech that should resolve all fears conservatives have about Romney.”

At the Politico, Jonathan Martin writes about ‘A New Mitt’: “Mitt's team got what they wanted: a tougher, more focused, more forward-leaning speech that was just that, a speech. Gone were the rambling anecdotes and asides (no Olympics and no Challenger) and left was a more concise message.”

At NRO, Kate O’Bierne says Romney scored: “In stringing together some of the events he faced upon taking office -- the Massachusetts court ordering gay marriage, the scientific community's support for creating embryos for research, and the blackballing of Catholic Charities over gay adoption -- he offered a potentially plausible sequence that prompted second thoughts on social issues.”

While Kathryn Jean Lopez, also at NRO, says Romney has turned it around from the NRI Summit: “Romney's addressing CPAC now and oh boy is this different than the disappointing speech he gave in late January at the NRI conservative summit…This is the speech he should have given in January at our summit. This is the speech he should have given when he launched the campaign. This speech — this is a rallying speech.” She also added: “Immediately after his speech, a social-conservative activst who was so not into him said to me "now that's more like it."”

The NY Times political blog reports: "Grover Norquist, head of the Americans for Tax Reform, said the Massachusetts governor had proven he could govern conservatively in that extremely liberal state in the way that Ginger Rogers danced – doing everything Fred Astaire did, but backwards and in high heels. Following that introduction, Mr. Romney said, “I’m glad to be here in high heels, walking backwards.”

The Libertarian Party blog said this: “I came back and found a massively long line leading to the now delayed 2:45 Mitt Romney speech. I mean massive. The Huckabee speech was full...packed...and it had nothing on the Romney speech. Outside of a literally packed massive ballroom, there was a line 300 yards long of a slew of Republican fans.”

Romney's CPAC Push

Mitt Romney's big push to make some headway at CPAC (which started today) is making headlines. Both the New York Times and the Politico ran articles today that highlighted Romney's concerted efforts to flood the Conference with volunteers (mostly college students) and do well in the CPAC straw poll. The Politico's article gives the false impression that Romney is paying his volunteers though ("Romney is paying dozens of college Republicans to lend him a hand"), when all he's done is simply cover the registration fees and travel costs of some of his volunteers.

McCain "Dissing" CPAC Organizers

The Washington Times has an interesting piece on McCain not attending CPAC today.

Sen. John McCain is the only major Republican presidential candidate who will not address the nation's premier gathering of conservatives this year.
Sponsors of the Conservative Political Action Conference, which begins today in Washington and brings together thousands of conservative leaders and grass-roots activists, say the Arizona Republican has "dissed" organizers by attempting to schedule a private reception for attendees after rejecting invitations to speak at the event.
"It was a classical McCain move, dissing us by going behind our backs," said William J. Lauderback, executive vice president of the American Conservative Union.

Big Weekend for Romney

I think this week is an important one for Mitt Romney for a couple of reasons. First, March 1st there is a straw poll in Spartanburg, South Carolina that will be a revealing indicator on where Romney stands in this key primary state (it will also be very interesting to see how Giuliani fares). After several somewhat rough weeks in the press, a strong showing could help quiet the unrest. Second, the CPAC Conference in DC this weekend will give Romney the opportunity to gauge his support among some key GOP conservatives as he appears alongside the current Republican frontrunners. Romney, in my mind, needs to make a strong showing at both events. After running ads in a number of key primary states last week, he's upped the ante and if he doesn't see some bounce from it, people are going to start asking why.

It's apparent that there is still a lot of suspicion about Romney among social conservatives. This last weekend at a meeting of the Council for National Policy, prominent conservatives, including James Dobson, Jerry Falwell, and Grover Norquist, pushed hard to enlist South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford as a candidate because "There is no outstanding conservative, and they are all looking for that." Romney also has a lot of social conservatives who are actively attacking him (especially in the Northeast).

In spite of these hurdles, however, Romney has an enormous amount going for him. He has been a prodigious fundraiser and some liberals see him as a the candidate to beat (some might argue the other GOP candidates do too). I think these next couple of months will be telling though... starting, of course, with this weekend.

Romney Volunteer Opportunity in D.C.

The volunteer coordinator for a Mitt Romney Booth at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C. is seeking volunteers. If you're interested, the Conference will be held on March 1st through the 3rd. Information about the opportunity is below:

The Romney Campaign is looking for volunteers to help at the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) being held at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, in Washington DC, on March 1st-3rd (Thurs – Sat). Essentially, we are looking for people to help man the Governor’s booth and work the floor handing out flyers, campaign literature, etc. to help the Governor show a strong presence. The conference floor will be open 9am-6pm Thursday and Friday, and 9am – 3pm (approx) on Saturday. We’d like to have 20-30 volunteers on the floor at any given time.

The Campaign will cover the registration for each volunteer. Additionally, Governor Romney will be speaking at the conference and will be hosting a reception for his volunteers and supporters. This is an excellent opportunity to get involved with the Romney campaign, meet important players, and get some good campaign experience.

We will have three 3-hour shifts (9a-12p, 12p-3p, 3-6p). If you are interested in being involved, please contact Shelly Astle at shellyastle@yahoo.com You are welcome to offer as much time as possible. If you can help for the full conference or a full day, great! If you can come for less time, let us know – we’d still appreciate your help!

This will also be good jumping off point for helping out in further events with the campaign, so please come help us out and spread the word to anyone else you think might want to get involved.