Monday, January 22, 2007

Rudy Giuliani's Prospects

Rudy Giuliani leads the field of Republican presidential hopefuls in most polls, but the majority of political insiders think he has almost no chance whatsoever of securing the Republican nomination. Stuart Rothenberg wrote an interesting article for Roll Call this past week that discusses the tough row Giuliani has to hoe (it can be found on his blog). Rothberg thinks Giuliani's chances at the nomination are nil, but in his article he brings up what seems like a very likely scenario if Giuliani were to somehow become the Republican nominee:
It seems to me that you need to suspend all your analytical faculties to believe the GOP will nominate for president a Republican who supports abortion rights, and is pro-gun control and pro-gay rights. It just isn’t going to happen, at least not in my lifetime.

Giuliani’s strong showing in GOP polling reflects his celebrity status and the reputation he earned after the terrorist attacks. But if and when he becomes a candidate, that will change. He will be evaluated on the basis of different things, including his past and current positions and behavior, and he’ll be attacked by critics and opponents. A Giuliani nomination would also generate a conservative third-party candidate in the general election and tear the GOP apart, thereby undercutting Giuliani’s electability argument.

So, the former mayor might make a terrific general election candidate, but I don’t see how he can get there as a Republican.

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