Thursday, March 29, 2007

Endorsements and polls

In honor of my esteemed collegue, Marc, I give you a news update:

Mitt Romney hits the jackpot: “Romney's campaign announced Wednesday that S. Craig Lindner, co-president of American Financial Group and CEO of Great American Financial Resources, will be co-chair of Romney's Ohio fundraising effort, along with Ames Travel Service president Nancy Donovan…Locking down the Lindners is a pretty big score for the Romney campaign, since there are untold numbers of other corporate-types in this part of the world who generally follow the Lindner family's lead when it comes to campaign contributions.”

Beauprez endorses Romney for president: “Former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez of Colorado endorsed fellow Republican Mitt Romney for president Wednesday…Beauprez, in a mass e-mail, said Romney had the right "political philosophy" as well as the experience and leadership skills necessary to be president.”

Finally, the New York Sun reports the results of the latest Zogby poll. The Sun notes a choice that the poll made:

In this Zogby poll, we can't look at Mr. Gingrich's support for a simple reason: They decided to take Mr. Gingrich (and Condi Rice) out of their polls on the assumption that neither is running for president. While, with Condi, I think that makes sense, it's not terribly helpful to have Mr. Gingrich out of the mix.

While the rise of Thompson has had some interesting effects on the polls, most of these early numbers will be aberrational. Essentially Thompson is the flavor of the week and the polls reflect that. Slate describes it this way:

Thompson's chief appeal is emotional…Authenticity and star power conjure visions of Ronald Reagan. But Reagan had genuine experience running something—namely the state of California. Thompson's résumé is thin—an undistinguished eight years in the Senate, an acting career, and a youthful turn as co-counsel in the Watergate hearings. Supporters try to pump up his résumé by boasting that he shepherded John Roberts through his confirmation hearings—but that was the legal equivalent of walking Michael Jordan onto the court.

Update: The DeMoines Register is also reporting the Zogby poll numbers for Iowa:

25% Giuliani
19% McCain
11% Romney
7% F. Thompson

I don't want to make too much of this and the national poll by Zogby, but it seems like Romney has more staying power than the Thompson crowd has given him credit for. We'll see how the polls trend for the next few weeks to see, but it would be very premature to abandon the Romney campaign.

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Blogger Marc said...

Good to see ole' Dave back on the block. Thanks my man.

One question... what do you make of the recent Gallup poll? It's terrible news for Romney in my mind.

11:39 AM  
Blogger Kyle said...

Right now my gut feeling is that polling right now will be aberational until Thompson and Gingrich decide yes or no that they are running. The flirtation of these candidates offers voters an "out" from making the hard choice between ACTUAL candidates.

Essentially it's a test of whether a guy like Thompson will stand the test of time or is a passing fancy.

Specifically about the Gallup poll, the two polls (Zogby and Fox)that have come out since then have showed Romney's numbers as steady, although they evidence the Thompson phenomenon. Thus, terrible news for Romney? No, but not great either.

Also interesting is that the majority of Thompson's numbers have not come at Romney's expense, but Giuliani and McCain.

1:11 PM  

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